Russian President for Life Vladimir Putin has been intimidating the Baltic States, Norway and Sweden since taking office in 1999. It is apparent he holds imperialist designs and wants to expand Russia’s influence to it’s Cold War, Soviet Bloc borders. Russia has used a mixture of military and soft intimidation against it’s neighbors.

According to Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept of 2016, “soft power has become an
integral part of efforts to achieve foreign policy objectives. This particularly includes the tools offered by civil society, as well as various methods and technologies — from information and communication to humanitarian and other types.” Moreover, unlike countries that follow Harvard Professor Joseph Nye’s classic definition of soft power — the ability of a country to persuade others to do what it wants without force or coercion — Russia doesn’t consider another state’s legitimacy or act morally; its aim in the Baltics is to intimidate and weaken its neighbors. – Marshal Center

One of the tools in Russia’s soft arsenal is propaganda. Russia has rewritten the history of Ukraine to justify it’s invasion and went so far as to blame NATO for their move. It’s interesting that President for life hopeful Donald Trump has repeated this false accusation. The West has been unwilling to call out these lies for what they are; and to great detriment. We see the false narrative propagated by Russia repeated online and from the mouth of Trump.

Propaganda is another influential tool of Russia’s soft power. Through print, broadcast and social media, as political analyst Agnia Grigas outlines, “Russia has been particularly successful in creating a virtual community involving not only the Russian diaspora but also a segment of the Baltic population that remains linked culturally, linguistically and ideologically to Moscow.” What separates Russian soft power from the classic definition of the term, and what essentially characterizes it, is that the Kremlin does not try to attract a target audience with its values, level of prosperity, political ideals and enhancement of Russia’s image; rather, it focuses on distraction and manipulation and prefers to discredit opposing forces. There are three dominant vectors of Russian propaganda against the Baltic states: The states are weak, they are trying to deviate from their history, and they discriminate against ethnic Russians. By spreading that disinformation across Europe, the Kremlin aims to tarnish the image of the Baltic states among NATO countries, a disturbing prospect for the Baltics. – Marshal Center Sep 2020

The Night Wolves are a ethnic Russian motorcycle gang that spent it’s time intimidating people in Baltic States like former colonists trying to cause fear in the populations of lost colonies. They admire Stalin and Putin and took part in the invasions of Donbass, Crimea and Ukraine. Wikipedia

To claim Putin poses no threat to NATO is hiding one’s head in the sand. Russia has used military intimidation in the form of exercises against Baltic States, Norway and Sweden. In 2013 Russia simulated a nuclear attack on Sweden. They have used jamming devices on military and civilian aircraft in the region.

The most obvious threats to targeted countries’ national security are incidents of aggression that are below the threshold of armed conflict but that include a military component. A frequent element in the Russian repertoire is the use of military exercises or airspace violations by military aircraft for intimidation purposes. Examples of such intimidating military maneuvers include NOTAMs in the Arctic close to Norwegian waters, simulated air attacks on Norway, and perhaps most notoriously, the simulated nuclear attack on Sweden during the Zapad 2013 exercise. A prime example of an airspace violation used to express discontent and a veiled threat was when two Russian Su-27 jets, transporting Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, buzzed Finnish airspace the day before Finland signed a bilateral letter of intent on defense cooperation with the United States in 2016. Furthermore, NATO Baltic Air Policing counted over 300 interceptions of Russian aircraft in 2023 in the Baltic states’ airspace. The challenge is often how to calibrate a response that is firm enough but will not trigger unwanted escalation steps. – Carnegie Endowment

On May 10 2025 the Helsinki Times warned of a Russian troop buildup on it’s border. Russian President for Life Vladimir Putin‘s military has been reactivating and expanding airstrips, set up tent housing for a division sized unit, built warehouses and stockpiled supplies.

Russia has been growing it’s military at a more rapid pace than western analysts predicted. The country has been manufacturing about 300 tanks per year since 2021. Artillery production has increased 20% and troop strength has increased to about 1.5 million.

While the threat of an assault on NATO is growing US president for life hopeful Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on the EU and insulted our NATO allies (see Reverse Psychology in the Arctic Circle).

A February report from Danish intelligence warned that Russia could be ready to launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO to be weak. One European intelligence official suggested Russia might first test NATO’s unity by targeting a small alliance country like Estonia, where a sizable ethnic Russian population lives. United 24 Media

• Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border Helsinki Times
• Russia Builds Up Military Bases Along Finland Border, Satellite Images Show United 24 Media
• Danish Intelligence Warns Russia Could Be Ready for War in Europe Within Five Years United 24 Media
• Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance Apr 15, 2019 Rand.org
• Fighting Disinformation in the Baltic States Foreign Policy Research Institute
• Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts: Lessons from the Nordic-Baltic Region on Countering Russian Gray Zone Aggression Nov 14, 2024 Carenegie Endowment Europe
• Russian war games in the Baltic Sea region: the Swedish case Oct 21, 2014 Center For Eastern Studies
• Unconventional Approaches Could Help Deter Russian Intimidation and Aggression Against the Baltic States Apr 15, 2019 Rand.org
• Time to Shed More Light on Russian Harassment of NATO Forces’ Families Chatham House
• Putin’s Angels: the bikers battling for Russia in Ukraine The Guardian
• Crowded Pond: NATO and Russian Maritime Power in the Baltic Sea Foreign Policy Research Institute
• Pence: Russian Aggression Greatest Threat to Baltic States VOANews