The death of Ismail Haniyeh came as a shock to the world. He and other Hamas leaders had been living in luxurious Doha, Qatar (NYPost). Israel put them on it’s public hit list. Haniyeh went to stay in Iran.
The relocations have begun.
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and Iran initially said the assassination was done with a missile according to witnesses in Tehran (Reuters). They claim that Israel conducted this strike. This is very doubtful, a missile launch from Israel would have to cross Saudi Arabia and Iraq to reach Iran. Haniyeh was in the capitol Tehran, a two and half hour drive from the Caspian Sea. Iranian defenses would have an easy time bringing this missile down. Also, it hit the exact apartment in the exact building killing only Haniyeh and a bodyguard.
Iran then reported Haniyeh was killed by a short range missile, probably because the first claim is laughable (Reuters). The short range missile theory is just as laughable; this missile would have been able to hit the exact apartment where Haniyeh was staying and have been launched from inside Iran.
Granted Mossad is a formidable intelligence agency. How difficult would it be to find out exactly which apartment Haniyeh was in and smuggle a missile into the Iranian capitol without anyone noticing? Extremely. Even with internal help it’s doubtful people walking around the streets of Tehran with a missile are not stopped. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is also a professional organization.
The New York Times has cited unnamed Middle Eastern, Iranian officials and US sources saying Haniyeh was killed by a bomb. This bomb had been planted about two months before the explosion and detonated from outside the building. This is a much likelier scenario if the Guard didn’t have a jamming device to block a trigger signal.
How would the Israelis know which apartment Haniyeh would be given before he showed up? They wouldn’t. The people who assigned Haniyeh to the apartment would however. The Iranians are very familiar with bombing tactics and it is doubtful they would allow anyone to know, or probably even decide, which one to put him in beforehand. The Ayatollah Khameni‘s forces assigned the apartment.
It is not to Israel’s advantage to kill Ismail Haniyeh at this time. After the Gaza conflict is decided certainly. Haniyeh was handling the hostage negotiations and his replacement, Sinwar is more of a hardliner.
When Israel successfully kills a high ranking opponent like Fuad Shukr (Reuters) or conducts a strike against a target they claim it (CNN). Israeli silence on this assassination probably means they didn’t do it and are trying to figure out who did.
So things go on as they have been. Gaza still dominates the news. The war in Ukraine gets less attention (BBC). The war in Sudan has created the biggest humanitarian crisis on the planet (CFR). This is where Vlad Putin hopes to establish a naval base. The Sudanese Civil War receives little if any coverage (4dforum). And the giants of Mordor are relatively happy.